What is our pain threshold?

Indrani Bagchi

The Uri terror attack has made us a nation of “jabra” (jaw) fans (as SRK would have said)! Our national bloodthirst also has a cyclical timeline - 2001, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2016, and it will go on. Governments have changed, but some things have not.

At least in our columns and in our studios, we have inflicted unacceptable damage on Pakistan, after what is arguably the worst attack on Indian security forces (Pathankot was the worst, until Uri happened).

In the couple of days since the attack, the Indian diplomatic system has swung into action with practised ease. The world is prepped and on India’s side, as it has been since the Mumbai attacks of 26/11. Honestly, the world has not actually moved from our side. As Pakistan has continued on its path of becoming the world’s best known jihadi entity, global sympathy has been with India. Global opinion is positive to the extent that the US Congress has introduced legislation seeking to declare Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism, even though India has not yet done so.

The Indian army has declared it will retaliate at a time and place of its choosing.  It is reasonable to expect the Modi government will indeed take some step beyond the diplomatic and political, for several reasons – given his muscular election campaigns Modi is facing a popular credibility test; if nothing else, he has to demonstrate that his response to Pakistani terror is different from the previous government, and third, the international community cannot be more indulgent. Since all politics is local, whatever action the government takes has to be appreciated by the average person, which basically means it has to be visible.

The Saarc summit, already tottering, has fallen into the abyss, which is all for the good. India has clear reasons for not going, but so do Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Sheikh Hasina fears a threat to her life in Islamabad, while Ghani’s relationship with Pakistan has been focused on a rising death toll inflicted by the Haqqani Taliban.

The decision to bypass Saarc and plump for BBIN or BIMSTEC is welcome, moving India beyond Saarc towards a regional grouping founded on connectivity and trade. This week India and ADB joined hands for a $1 billion highway connecting Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Nepal. There should be more projects to push BIMSTEC during the October summit. Isolating Pakistan in the region doesn’t take much.

Uri has also been terrible for Nawaz Sharif’s campaign against India. In the past few months, Pakistan’s relentless campaign against India had had some effect. All that was overturned with Uri. It goes to show you never know when your pet monsters decide to bit you back. After Pathankot, Pakistan had accepted the attack emanated from its soil and it was a rare moment when Indian and Pakistani investigators worked together, to the extent of the ISI being given access to Pathankot base. This time, the Pakistan government has dropped that fig leaf, instead accusing India of a false flag operation.

But Uri, like all others that came before, once again exposes India. Our intelligence failed again, but no one will be held accountable for either failing to catch the terrorists when they broke through or for leaking critical operational details of changeover patterns when the forces are at their most vulnerable. Remember the January 8,2013 beheading of an Indian soldier also happened under similar circumstances. That needs to change demonstrably.

The best retaliation is instant and punitive. The Indian political-military apparatus should work out a set of instant responses to Pakistani terror provocation, which should become standard operating procedure, not requiring political clearance. Such a system is already in effect with regard to ceasefire violations and cross-LOC firing. We need to set up something similar with terror attacks. That way, response is tough, automatic, and the political leadership is saved from endless CCS meetings where they forget to invite key ministers. The longer the decision is dragged out, the bigger the anger, greater the expectation of an overwhelming response – and we lose the moment. Let the army do its job.

Maybe Uri will finally help this government find its muse on Pakistan policy. Modi’s foreign policy has been by and large mature, but on Pakistan the number of missteps have been ridiculous.

India’s Pakistan policy should not be about convincing the rest of the world that Pakistan is delusional and we are victimized. They know that. It should not be about domestic politics and elections – Indian politicians need to separate Muslims from our Pakistan policy.

As a great power, India cannot also do things like withdraw from the Indus Waters Treaty or send our own fidayeens into Pakistan as deluded Indians have proposed. We might as well open a recruiting centre for LeT.

Our starting point should be that Pakistan and its terror have to be contained, while maintaining India’s own growth trajectory. What are the 10 different ways to get there? Once we think through the options, we might be surprised to find there are some available that don’t involve waging war, high risk of escalation or the other extreme, where we slink away licking bruises.

Most important, Indians need to have a conversation with ourselves -- how much pain are we, as a nation, are prepared to take if we take the fight against terror inside Pakistan? How much can we absorb? What is our national red-line? This would help us work through our options on Pakistan.

Israel built that consensus decades ago, which is why their crazy politics have not been able to disturb this article of faith.  

And no, Modiji, let’s not fly kites with Nawaz on Basant. The Chinese manja is deadly.

September 22, 2016. The Times of India

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