The force awakens

Indrani Bagchi

Fun fact: Star Wars – The Force Awakens, shot a large part of the film in the desert landscape of the UAE. But the futuristic sets of the latest George Lucas creation were created by Bollywood for an Abu Dhabi company.

Gulf Arabs ideally want the marriage of Bollywood and Hollywood on their sands. On the geopolitical level, they say they have been waiting for India to claim its space in the region for years, a space that continues to be dominated by the US. But the sands are shifting, compelling India to look west in a way it hadn’t done before.

As the Crown Prince of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan takes the spotlight as chief guest for Republic Day, the journey that began with the visit of late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in 2006 moves to the next level.

Investment and economic opportunity are strong attractions – India is looking at over $60 billion in investment interests by the third largest economy in the Gulf region. This time they are primarily interested in ports on India’s eastern seaboard or in the southern tip. The UAE’s big sovereign wealth funds, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadla-IPIC want to make India their next big destination.

India has a poor history here – the road is strewn with the debris of Etisalat, Emaar and DB World, all of whom bear the scars of previous forays into India. So the Modi government has a tougher job making them second time lucky. Talking to senior ministers in the UAE in the past days, it's clear they want to go into India, but the maze of central and state regulations, land acquisition, predictability in tax regimes keep them up at night. China’s already ahead of India here, no surprise.

India frankly, needs the UAE more than the other way round. A large market is less important than where the market is headed – high tech manufacturing, creative industries, innovation pods, not merely consumers. The UAE recognized this ages ago and are investing massively in the future. All you have to do is get into a driverless pod in Masdar City to get to your destination and see the possibilities of a future where you can store solar energy in batteries not yet invented, or build zero carbon homes for future families. That ought to be our future, we need partners who have already started on this journey. The Saudis only plan to diversify from oil, Dubai’s revenues are only 5 percent oil, Abu Dhabi is down to the low 60s.

 It’s important for both India and the UAE to look beyond Pakistan when we contemplate this region. With 8 million Indians living and working, making tons of money, innovating, creating, and most important, peaceful, it's inevitable that these countries will compare them to the crime-ridden Pakistanis and come to the only logical conclusion. The UAE too needs to wean itself away from Pakistan’s terror syndicates all of whom had/have huge business interests in Dubai and Abu Dhabi – read Dawood Ibrahim, and a slew of other smaller ones. Slow steps, but in the past three years, there have been no high level Pakistani official visits to the UAE.

They are beginning to get it. The killing of 5 UAE diplomats in Kandahar by what appears to be a joint operation between the Haqqani network and Pakistan’s friendly neighbourhood ISI has stunned this state. They supported the Taliban, and even today hesitate to criticize them. But they can’t wrap their heads around the fact that Sirajuddin Haqqani is also the top gun of the Taliban today. It brings them uncomfortably close to their other big fear – of being overwhelmed by Daesh or whatever is its successor.

The UAE authorities are desperately plugging every loophole they can find. The Friday sermon is written by the government and every imam is expected to read just that, nothing more. Their ministry of tolerance brings together other religions, practices with a message of inclusion. Their 22-year-old minister for youth has started “youth circles” to reach out to the next generation, inculcate values of toleration and moderation, but closely monitor their online activities. Another organization, Hedayah, working with other countries to clean school textbooks, rope in families to counter extremism. And they all wonder how so few Indians have joined Al Qaeda. The UAE’s vision for itself has a large space for what they see are Indian values. That's important for us.

India itself is looking at playing a greater security role in this region, and therefore defence and security cooperation with the UAE is big. The Gulf Arabs are simultaneously looking at a less-interested US, more belligerent Iran and terrorism challenges that could upend their carefully built economic marvel. That's where India should come in. The Indian initiatives in Yemen and Iraq have displayed Indian capabilities, India now has the space to grow its security footprint further.

China is bigger, more efficient, a bigger market. Why then do the Gulf Arabs look at India? First, history. Second, China’s close relations with Iran and Pakistan. Third, China’s strategic rival, US, is India’s strategic ally. It makes a world of difference.

January 25, 2017. The Times of India

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