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The terror confusion

Indrani Bagchi The Gujarat police, NSG and our numerous intelligence and security agencies are currently on an all-India lookout for 10 terrorists who may have “sneaked” into India from Pakistan (terrorists always “sneak” in, though over the years, they may have found other less sneaky ways of coming across). Not only are the top metropolises on high alert – the alert has spread from Gujarat to Delhi, to Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Cyberabad. Smaller cities like Lucknow, Vijaywada, Bhopal, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh, and the list goes on, are all on hyper alert. Some of the Mahashivratri celebrations in the Somnath temple were cancelled fearing that amidst the dancers celebrating Lord Shiva could be suicide bombers. For the past 48 hours the nation has been on tenterhooks. In other words, the nation has been terrorised without the terrorists having shown themselves. There are intel alerts and then there are intel alerts. Over the years, despite the ones that got away,...
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Bangladesh the new gateway to the east

Indrani Bagchi India’s Look/Act East policy is growing a new gateway. Conventional wisdom had Myanmar as India’s lean-in platform for Asia. Bangladesh may be hijacking that role. While India remains locked in a 1947 relationship with Pakistan and a 1950s one with Nepal, Bangladesh seems to have broken out and India and Bangladesh are taking simple but significant steps towards a new neighbourhood paradigm. The relationship is not problem-free by any stretch of the imagination, probably never will be, but dawn is breaking. A big reason for this is a settled land and maritime boundary. The virtually seamless implementation of the land boundary agreement (LBA) on both sides, including movement of people, resettlement, rehabilitation, etc was an enormous confidence booster. India in 2014 accepted the verdict of the international tribunal on the maritime boundary, giving Bangladesh a big chunk of the sea. Sheikh Hasina has invested in India as well – rolling up many extrem...
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India's implementation deficit

Indrani Bagchi The Kaladan multi-modal transit-transport system connecting India’s north-eastern states through Myanmar to its Sittwe port was intended to be a landmark project that would power India’s links to Asean region. Signed in 2008, the project was supposed to be completed by 2013. But it’s unlikely to get anywhere for at least another few years largely because the Indian government estimates of the entire project was wildly inaccurate. The project first envisaged 225 km of waterway on the river Kaladan, but this was later found to be incorrect, it has now been modified to 158 km. The road between Paletwa and Indo-Myanmar border was first thought to be 62 km, also incorrect, later corrected to 110 km. Nobody counted the shoals that had to be dredged in the river – there are 6 shoals, which if detected at the time the project was prepared could have altered the project. The cost, starting out at Rs 535 crore in 2008, now needs a massive Rs 2904 crore just to make amends for the...
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Take a deep breath

Indrani Bagchi Two years, four US visits and seven summits later, prime minister, Narendra Modi is, as he told the US Congress, playing a “new symphony”. As he wings back from Mexico with three crucial NSG endorsements in the bag, the flamboyance of Modi or his bulging frequent flyer miles are no longer talking points. The bigger question, is there a method in the 360-degree global outreach of his government? Whether India manages to enter the nuclear traders’ cartel in the coming weeks or whether Modi’s diplomacy collapses in a heap at China’s opposition, there are certain discernible patterns in his foreign policy that emerge from the mass of statements, MOUs, hugs and yoga. It’s easy to see how close India has grown to the US under Modi. What’s less noticeable is how India is using US for its other relationships and other ambitions. In 2008, when Manmohan Singh dropped by to tell Bush how Indians loved him, he also told businessmen and wonks reeling from the fiscal crisis,...
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Sub-continent treadmill

Indrani Bagchi The South China Sea is several seas away from us. The NSG membership will happen some time after we (the people and government) have stopped hyperventilating about it. Instead, look closer home. India’s immediate neighborhood remains on its treadmill: furiously running through myriad crises, without actually getting anywhere. Can India get beyond firefighting as a foreign policy goal in its backyard? KP Oli in Kathmandu is fighting to save his seat, even as Nepal’s only charismatic leader, Prachanda waits impatiently to become Nepal’s 39 th prime minister. For the second time in a few months, Oli has played his extreme-nationalist card, blaming India for his predicament. He has a full-blown Madhesi crisis on his hands, he has barely moved on earthquake reconstruction, the economy needs help, tourism is struggling, but he’s busy laying the fault at India’s doorstep. Chinese diplomats have been rushing around Kathmandu trying to save him, even though almost six...
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What is our pain threshold?

Indrani Bagchi The Uri terror attack has made us a nation of “jabra” (jaw) fans (as SRK would have said)! Our national bloodthirst also has a cyclical timeline - 2001, 2006, 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2016, and it will go on. Governments have changed, but some things have not. At least in our columns and in our studios, we have inflicted unacceptable damage on Pakistan, after what is arguably the worst attack on Indian security forces (Pathankot was the worst, until Uri happened). In the couple of days since the attack, the Indian diplomatic system has swung into action with practised ease. The world is prepped and on India’s side, as it has been since the Mumbai attacks of 26/11. Honestly, the world has not actually moved from our side. As Pakistan has continued on its path of becoming the world’s best known jihadi entity, global sympathy has been with India. Global opinion is positive to the extent that the US Congress has introduced legislation seeking to declare Pakistan a stat...
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Build only a security relationship with Pakistan

Indrani Bagchi Since the Uri attacks, a dominant theme in the national discourse was of capability, and whether India had what it took to take the fight to the enemy. The only thing that separated the believers from the others was faith. Thursday’s midnight operations across the LOC settled that debate. The strikes did a lot more, which will hold even if Pakistan decides to retaliate. What can Pakistan do? They can ratchet up border tensions, maybe hit some Indians either on the LOC or boundary; they can activate sleeper cells to launch terror attacks in other parts of India; they can attack Indian interests in Afghanistan. All of these would qualify as terrorism, and play into the Indian narrative. Terrorism will no longer be a low-cost option for Pakistan, thriving under a nuclear threshold. The complacency that accompanied terror attacks from Pakistan just evaporated – Pakistanis were comfortable in the belief that India would be all sound and fury, while Indians would fatal...
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