The world will look different next month

The head table of global affairs is in for a makeover. In one month from now, Manmohan Singh’s top interlocutors could all be new faces, as US, China, and even Japan head for the hustings.
On November 6, Barack Obama will be up for re-election, in a race that has thrown up unpleasant surprises close to the home stretch. From being a candidate who could barely control his own Republican party, Mitt Romney surged forward to be a surprisingly competent debator. A tired, “not there” Obama opened up the presidential sweepstakes, even giving Romney a 4-point lead, and turning what was until then an easy victory to a question. Despite the Romney surge, pundits would still put their money on Obama.
But it is increasingly clear that the new presidency, with either Obama or Romney at the helm, will be different from the last four years. The job figures, which has been measured as closely as blood pressure, fell to a reassuring 7.8 per cent last month __ to the level it was when Obama took office four years ago. Many economists would be hard pressed to say that the economy prospered under Obama. But he eliminated Osama bin Laden and that fact alone will see a significant change in US foreign policy, regardless of who is in charge. Then there is China.
On November 8, the Chinese will go through its own once-in-a-decade leadership change, which promises to have a greater impact on the nation and the world. The Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao team will make way for the Xi Jinping-Li Keqiang duo who will steer China for the next decade.  Seventy percent of China’s leadership will move to new people, which will have a huge impact on the future of the world’s second largest economy.
The 18th party congress should have actually met in mid October, but the run-up to the Congress has had more than its share of excitement __ the Bo Xilai affair, which saw the powerful Chongqing boss unceremoniously sacked and his wife in jail for murder, and his police chief, Wang Lijun in prison for running to the US consulate for help; the president-in waiting, Xi Jinping’s mysterious disappearance for an unspecified reason which set the grapevine abuzz; Hu Jintao’s close associate removed after it transpired that his son died in a Ferrari crash in Beijing in very strange circumstances.
We don’t know much about the new leadership __ except that Xi Jinping met foreign minister SM Krishna briefly __ but China’s changes come in an environment of flux. China’s famed economic engine is slowing as the global slowdown catches up with it, China is in the middle of bruising diplomatic tussles with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and with a host of south-east Asian nations in the South China Sea. The Tibetans continue to keep their issue on fire, and despite the current calm, Xinjiang remains a worry. Most important, the US is returning to the Asia-Pacific. How will the new leadership react?
For India, the months ahead will involve a lot of “watch and wait”. The India-US relationship has now become institutionalized and isn’t actually dependent on a president. Between end-September and end October, India and US are plodding their way through 12 different bilateral dialogues.
With China in its current nationalistic incarnation, India has generally stayed clear of becoming a subject of the charged rhetoric. In the second half of November, India and China will hold the first strategic economic dialogue between Montek Singh Ahluwalia and a new leadership in China. That will provide India with the first “feel” for the new leadership across the Himalayas.
The exception is Japan. Japan too is headed for elections, but here the Indian engagement is constant. Prime minister Manmohan Singh is preparing for his annual visit to Japan in mid-November, and in all these years, despite the frequent changes in government, this has remained a constant.
October 12, 2012

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

What is our pain threshold?

Nothing positive in Indo-US ties since nuclear deal

Iran to continue with its nuke program