Home & Away

Indrani Bagchi The Kaladan multi-modal transit-transport system connecting India’s north-eastern states through Myanmar to its Sittwe port was intended to be a landmark project that would power India’s links to Asean region. Signed in 2008, the project was supposed to be completed by 2013. But it’s unlikely to get anywhere for at least another few years largely because the Indian government estimates of the entire project was wildly inaccurate. The project first envisaged 225 km of waterway on the river Kaladan, but this was later found to be incorrect, it has now been modified to 158 km. The road between Paletwa and Indo-Myanmar border was first thought to be 62 km, also incorrect, later corrected to 110 km. Nobody counted the shoals that had to be dredged in the river – there are 6 shoals, which if detected at the time the project was prepared could have altered the project. The cost, starting out at Rs 535 crore in 2008, now needs a massive Rs 2904 crore just to make amends for the...

Indrani Bagchi Two years, four US visits and seven summits later, prime minister, Narendra Modi is, as he told the US Congress, playing a “new symphony”. As he wings back from Mexico with three crucial NSG endorsements in the bag, the flamboyance of Modi or his bulging frequent flyer miles are no longer talking points. The bigger question, is there a method in the 360-degree global outreach of his government? Whether India manages to enter the nuclear traders’ cartel in the coming weeks or whether Modi’s diplomacy collapses in a heap at China’s opposition, there are certain discernible patterns in his foreign policy that emerge from the mass of statements, MOUs, hugs and yoga. It’s easy to see how close India has grown to the US under Modi. What’s less noticeable is how India is using US for its other relationships and other ambitions. In 2008, when Manmohan Singh dropped by to tell Bush how Indians loved him, he also told businessmen and wonks reeling from the fiscal crisis,...

Indrani Bagchi The South China Sea is several seas away from us. The NSG membership will happen some time after we (the people and government) have stopped hyperventilating about it. Instead, look closer home. India’s immediate neighborhood remains on its treadmill: furiously running through myriad crises, without actually getting anywhere. Can India get beyond firefighting as a foreign policy goal in its backyard? KP Oli in Kathmandu is fighting to save his seat, even as Nepal’s only charismatic leader, Prachanda waits impatiently to become Nepal’s 39 th prime minister. For the second time in a few months, Oli has played his extreme-nationalist card, blaming India for his predicament. He has a full-blown Madhesi crisis on his hands, he has barely moved on earthquake reconstruction, the economy needs help, tourism is struggling, but he’s busy laying the fault at India’s doorstep. Chinese diplomats have been rushing around Kathmandu trying to save him, even though almost six...

Indrani Bagchi Since the Uri attacks, a dominant theme in the national discourse was of capability, and whether India had what it took to take the fight to the enemy. The only thing that separated the believers from the others was faith. Thursday’s midnight operations across the LOC settled that debate. The strikes did a lot more, which will hold even if Pakistan decides to retaliate. What can Pakistan do? They can ratchet up border tensions, maybe hit some Indians either on the LOC or boundary; they can activate sleeper cells to launch terror attacks in other parts of India; they can attack Indian interests in Afghanistan. All of these would qualify as terrorism, and play into the Indian narrative. Terrorism will no longer be a low-cost option for Pakistan, thriving under a nuclear threshold. The complacency that accompanied terror attacks from Pakistan just evaporated – Pakistanis were comfortable in the belief that India would be all sound and fury, while Indians would fatal...

Indrani Bagchi Take your ringside seats, people, as another US-China tournament of shadows unfolds. When Donald Trump spoke to Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-Wen and challenged established US-China policy, many parts of Asia, India included, quietly cheered. As expected, China retaliated -- by stealing a US Navy drone from South China Sea, testing both a departing president and an incoming one.  Bill Clinton had the Taiwan Straits crisis, George Bush was greeted with the embarrassment of the EP-3E crash, and Obama was challenged when five Chinese navy ships harassed the USNS Impeccable. Trump is being greeted ahead of his term but we await events with interest, because they could determine global events of the coming four years. Both US and China are in a dangerous part of the field. China has to protect the aura of “core leader” Xi Jinping, who is driving the combined tigers of nationalism, military modernization, anti-corruption and a slowing economy. The US pi...

Indrani Bagchi This time last year, Indians and Pakistanis were basking in the glow of the birthday bumps Nawaz Sharif got from Narendra Modi. The Nepal blockade was being lifted, Afghans had got their parliament and military helicopters … after charming the Fortune 500, PM wowed Silicon Valley and the Arabs with equal felicity, we reached out with a fab Africa summit, sealed a border agreement with Bangladesh, rolled out an ambitious Indian Ocean policy and hey, we were up there with the Americans to give the world a climate change deal. 2015 was about Modi changing global perceptions about India. In 2016, Modi took a breather from his global blitz, as India consolidated some of the gains and foreign policy ventured into some new areas. But peering into 2017, the horizon appears much darker -- the world is “loosening”, alliances and relationships are getting complicated, and the old-fashioned balance of power is making a comeback. For India, a non status-quo power, the challenge...

New Delhi, February 24, 2013 It was an “understanding” between India and Maldives that resolved an embarrassing political situation in the island country after former president Nasheed took refuge inside the Indian high commission drawing India into the heart of the ongoing political crisis there. The resolution, which showcased Indian diplomacy at its most effective, confirmed India’s position as the pre-eminent power in the Indian Ocean. Both countries have denied there was a “deal” __ and there wasn’t. Since the moment Nasheed became a refugee in the Indian mission, both India, Maldives and, after a while, even Nasheed himself, were looking for a way to end the agony. On the Indian side, the initiative was led jointly by NSA Shivshankar Menon and foreign minister Salman Khurshid. Khurshid spoke with his counterpart Abdul Samad Abdulla over three times in the past week to soften up the government there to the fact that a face-saving solution had to be found for all concerned. Men...